Proposal summaries

These are research proposals that have been approved by the ALSPAC exec. The titles include a B number which identifies the proposal and the date on which the proposals received ALSPAC exec approval.

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B526 - Investigating the development of romantic and sexual activity in early adolescence - 23/08/2010

B number: 
B526
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Nicola Low (University of Bern, Switzerland, Europe)
Co-applicants: 
Dr J Cassell (Not used 0, Not used 0), Dr Andrea Waylen (University of Bristol, UK), Prof Andy Ness (University of Bristol, UK), Prof Jonathan Sterne (University of Bristol, UK), Prof Dieter Wolke (University of Warwick, UK)
Title of project: 
Investigating the development of romantic and sexual activity in early adolescence
Proposal summary: 

Risky sexual behaviour is a key strand in ALSPAC's newly funded ESRC programme. Sexual behaviour is a part of normal human development. Although early sexual activity has adverse outcomes, including unwanted pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections including HIV, and psychological disturbances, the vast majority of adolescents do not experience these consequences. Investigating the origins of risky behaviour should therefore take place within the overall context of the development of romantic and sexual behaviours. Developmental theories suggest a number of potential risk factors for early sexual behaviours but these hypotheses have not been tested extensively in large prospective studies.

Data about romantic and sexual behaviours have been collected by computer assisted self interview in ALSPAC since age 11+. The questionnaire was adapted from the Adolescent Sexual Activity Index. This instrument asks a child about their participation in a hierarchy of ten romantic and sexual activities, and has additional questions about the context of encounters.

Preliminary analyses at 11+ and 12+ clinics have included data from 6856/7218 (95%) children aged 11-12 years and 6801/7011 (97%) aged 12-13 years. Amongst 11-12 year olds 16.2% (95% CI 15.3-17.1) had kissed another person. One year later, 32.6, 95% (CI 31.5-33.8) had kissed another person. More intimate behaviours (asked only at 12+) were much less frequent. For girls and boys combined, 11.8% (95% CI 11.0-12.6) of 12-13 year olds had lain down together with someone of the opposite sex and 4.9% (95%CI 4.5-5.5) reported petting or coital behavior of some sort. No analyses of factors associated with these behaviours has yet been done.

Objectives

1. To document trajectories of romantic and sexual development in 11-13 year old children;

2. To determine indicators of social position, family and neighbourhood environment, parental and child behaviours in early and middle childhood that are associated with the early onset of intimate sexual behaviour in 11-13 year olds;

Date proposal received: 
Monday, 23 August, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Monday, 23 August, 2010
Keywords: 
ADHD, Antisocial Behaviour, Behavioural Problems
Primary keyword: 

B965 - The contributions of phonological and morphological knowledge to achievement in English KS2 and 3 - 20/08/2010

B number: 
B965
Principal applicant name: 
Terezinha Nunes (University of Oxford, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Rosina Barros (Not used 0, Not used 0), Peter Bryant (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Title of project: 
The contributions of phonological and morphological knowledge to achievement in English KS2 and 3
Proposal summary: 

The contributions of phonological and morphological knowledge to achievement in English KS2 and 3

Abstract

English orthography uses letters to represent sounds (phonemes) and to represent units of meaning, called morphemes. The word magician exemplifies this well. M and GI in magician represent the same sounds as they do in other words; the rest of the word would seem irregular if analysed in letter-sound correspondences. However, it is a regular word, formed by two morphemes: magic, the stem, and the suffix -ian. There is a growing body of evidence that students' knowledge of morphemes is important for spelling and reading comprehension in English. Using a large data set (over 2,500 students) and advanced statistical analyses, this project will investigate whether students' knowledge of both phonemes and morphemes are related to their later English achievement in standardised school assessments, and whether these two aspects of linguistic knowledge are associated with the students' socio-economic background. The results will contribute to a better understanding of literacy learning in primary school and will have implications for the democratisation of education.

Proposed programme

The project has two aims. First, to analyse the relative role of children's phonological and morphological skills in their English attainment in school and their reading comprehension. Second, to analyse the relationships between these cognitive factors and the children's socio-economic background.

The ALSPAC data base has measures of students' SES, general intelligence, vocabulary, working memory (WM), and their reading and spelling skills at ages 8 and 9. The reading and spelling measures (Nunes et al., 2003) include two groups of words and pseudowords: one group can be read or spelled using only phonological knowledge (e.g. slide and smape) but the second group requires the use of morphological knowledge (e.g. dishonest and mishammer). These measures will be used a predictors of three outcome measures: reading comprehension, obtained at age 9, and English achievement at KS2 and KS3. ) We propose to test whether the students' phonological and morphological knowledge at age 9 predicts their reading comprehension, and their later English KS2 & 3 achievement, after controlling for general intelligence, vocabulary and WM. The relationships between these measures and the students' SES will be further analysed in structural equation models. We hypothesise that students' linguistic knowledge is directly related to their English KS 2 & 3 achievement, and also mediates the connection between SES and their KS 2 & 3 achievement in English: SES differences affects the children's linguistic knowledge which in turn determines their KS 2 & 3 achievement.

These analyses will make significant contributions to knowledge about the development of reading and spelling and reading comprehension as well as English achievement in school. First, they will provide the first evidence on the separate contributions made by phonological and morphological knowledge to reading comprehension in the U.K. context. Second, KS assessments are an ecologically valid measure of school achievement; this will be the first analysis of how morphological and phonological knowledge relate to later English achievement in school designed measured. Third, the contribution of analyses of large data sets is unique: they offer a much more secure basis for generalisations and the development of educational policy. There are no previous large scale studies of the relationships between measures of phonological and morphological knowledge and later English achievement. Finally, if linguistic knowledge is shown to mediate the effects of SES on students' KS2 & 3 English attainment, this entirely new result will have important implications for curriculum development and should lead to better democratisation of education.

Date proposal received: 
Friday, 20 August, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Friday, 20 August, 2010
Keywords: 
Education
Primary keyword: 

B1023 - GWAS of blood pressure in children of early genetics and lifecourse epidemiology EAGLE consortium - 05/08/2010

B number: 
B1023
Principal applicant name: 
Priyakumari Parmar (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Co-applicants: 
Dr Nic Timpson (Not used 0, Not used 0), Prof Lyle Palmer (Not used 0, Not used 0), Prof Craig Pennell (Not used 0, Not used 0), Dr Vincent Jaddoe (Not used 0, Not used 0), Rob Taal (Not used 0, Not used 0), Dr Joachim Heinrich (Not used 0, Not used 0), Prof Laurie Beilin (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Title of project: 
GWAS of blood pressure in children of early genetics and lifecourse epidemiology (EAGLE) consortium
Proposal summary: 

This proposal aims initially to undertake meta-analyses of GWAS data for cross-sectional BP. Nicholas Timpson is representing ALSPAC with regards to the EAGLE Blood Pressure Working Group and has already agreed to complete these analyses. We are planning to run meta-analyses of cross-sectional GWAS across the participating cohorts of EAGLE which include Raine, GenR and Lisa Plus in children aged between 5 and 15 years of age.

From here we hope to identify specific SNPs and genes associated with the elevated measures SBP and DBP and additionally take these significant SNPs and investigate their association in adult blood pressure consortiums to provide further insight in to the underlying genetic determinants of adult hypertension.

We also intend to analyse both the intercept and slope of longitudinally measured BP in childhood. We will utilise a range of statistical methods, including Bayesian techniques, to investigate gene:gene interactions and longitudinal blood pressure trajectories during the postnatal period. This research will produce best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) for blood pressure trajectories for all eligible studies within the EAGLE Consortium for future genetic and epidemiological investigations.

Date proposal received: 
Thursday, 5 August, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Thursday, 5 August, 2010
Keywords: 
Cardiovascular , Genetics
Primary keyword: 

B1029 - Associations of a polymorphism in the ACTN3 gene and physical capability - 17/07/2010

B number: 
B1029
Principal applicant name: 
Prof Ian Day (University of Bristol, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Prof Yaov Ben-Schlomo (Not used 0, Not used 0), Tamuno Alfred (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Title of project: 
Associations of a polymorphism in the ACTN3 gene and physical capability
Proposal summary: 

Muscle performance plays a direct role in measures of physical capability, such as grip strength, and indirectly influences the ability to balance and walking speed. It is therefore hypothesised that genes involved in muscle function affect physical capability.

The protein ACTN3 is expressed in fast twitch muscle fibers and a polymorphism in ACTN3 has been linked to athletic performance (Ahmetov et al. 2008, Enyon et al 2009). Whilst some studies have investigated the association between this polymorphism and measures of physical functioning in the general population (Moran et al. 2007, Delmonico et al. 2008, Walsh et al 2008), with, for example, no associations observed with grip strength in older adults (Delmonico et al. 2008) or adolescents (Moran et al), there have also been conflicting gender differences found with regards to other physical functioning traits (Delmonico et al 2008, Walsh et al. 2008). Thus it is proposed that a larger sample size will be able to provide stronger evidence of any positive or null associations.

The objective is to use available genotypic information for ACTN3 (rs1815739/ r577X) in ALSPAC and investigate associations with measures of physical capability. The analyses will then be pooled in a meta-analysis with 7 HALCyon cohorts (www.halcyon.ac.uk) containing around 12,000 middle-aged UK men and women.

Date proposal received: 
Saturday, 17 July, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Saturday, 17 July, 2010
Keywords: 
Genetics
Primary keyword: 

B1021 - An investigation of common and unique maternal influences on the development of social communication deficits and hyperactivity in children during later life - 09/07/2010

B number: 
B1021
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Beate St Pourcain (University of Bristol, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Prof George Davey Smith (University of Bristol, UK), Prof David Skuse (King's College London, UK), Prof Jean Golding (University of Bristol, UK), Dr William Mandy (King's College London, UK)
Title of project: 
An investigation of common and unique maternal influences on the development of social communication deficits and hyperactivity in children during later life
Proposal summary: 

The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of maternal risk factors before and/or during pregnancy on the development of social communication deficits and hyperactivity in children during later life. At the extreme end of each phenotypic spectrum, characterised by Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) respectively, considerable comorbidity has been reported 1. 20-50% of children with ADHD meet diagnostic criteria for ASD, and 30-80% of ASD children meet diagnostic criteria for ADHD1. Both conditions, ASD and ADHD, share variance at a behavioural level (e.g.2,3), and the identification of shared structural brain abnormalities (e.g. 4) and genetic risk factors (e.g. 5) implies the presence of some underlying shared disease aetiology (e.g. 6).

The overlap in characteristics between ADHD and ASD, both at a behavioural and at a neural level, raises the question of whether environmental or familial exposures that have previously been associated with ASD(e.g. 7,8,9) also confer risk of ADHD symptoms (specifically, hyperactivity in this context). Are those risks found in children with ASD who lack ADHD symptoms? Establishing differences in environmental risk factor profiles is an important step towards the identification of the role of specific environmental risk within GxE interactions (as proposed in B954) and the detection of critical time windows during child development where environmental or familial exposures may exacerbate genetically mediated risk.

Using the phenotypic richness and power of the ALSPAC cohort, we will focus on the investigation of broad ASD and ADHD phenotypes during the course of child and adolescent development. Specifically,we will model individual and joint trajectories for the development of social communication deficits (mother-reported SCDC measurements: 91, 128, 166, 198 mns) and hyperactive behaviour (mother-reported SDQ scores: 47, 81, 97, 115, 140, 157, 198 mns). We will examine risk of the child following one or other trajectory in relation to reports of maternalsubstance use (smoking, marijuana use and alcohol use) during and before pregnancy, maternal infections (influenza) during and before pregnancy and a maternal history of psychiatric disorders.

We will also investigate whether these trajectories, and any associated risk, are moderated by parenting influences, such as parental warmth 10 (aggregated parenting measure at 8 months and 33 months derived by Andrea Waylen and Sarah Stewart-Brown)

Using structural equation modelling, weseek to identify risk factors that are unique with respect to the expression of the individualbroad ASD and ADHD phenotypesand, if possible, to distinguish them from risk factors that are shared, and likely to indicate a common aetiology.

Date proposal received: 
Friday, 9 July, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Friday, 9 July, 2010
Keywords: 
ADHD, Behavioural Problems
Primary keyword: 

B1020 - MOBILE Modelling behaviour change to identify the behavioural targets of obesity prevention Fellowship - 05/07/2010

B number: 
B1020
Principal applicant name: 
Dr James White (University of Cardiff, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Title of project: 
MOBILE: Modelling behaviour change to identify the behavioural, targets of obesity prevention (Fellowship)
Proposal summary: 

Aims and Objectives:

To investigate whether changes in the levels of physical activity, self-reports on dietary intake and habits are associated with subsequent changes in the development of body fat during early adolescence.

Design:

A five year prospective cohort of adolescents in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) study.

Methods:

We propose to create a prospective cohort using four waves of ALSPAC data (recorded at ages 10.6, 11.8, 13.9 and 15). This cohort will form the basis of analysis into the independent and interdependent effects of changes in physical activity (total activity and MVPA) between the ages of 11.8-13.9, and dietary intake and habits (dietary energy density; fruit and vegetable intake; kJ/day from liquids) between the ages of 10.6-13.9, on subsequent changes in body fat (changes in Fat Mass and Fat Mass Index) between the ages of 13.9-15, after accounting for potential effect modification across known genetic (presence of high risk allele on FTO gene) and socioeconomic risk factors for increases in body fat in this cohort.

Main outcome measures:

Change in Fat Mass (kg) and Fat Mass Index (kg fat/ height) measured by Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry between the ages of 13.9-15.

Main predictors:

Changes in levels of physical activity:

Change in total activity (average counts per min over full period of valid recording (worn for greater than than or equal to 10 hours for greater than than or equal to 3 days)) and daily amount of moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (average min per day with a total of greater than 3600 counts) between the ages of 11.8-13.9.

Measurement of changes in dietary intake and other dietary habits:

Dietary energy density (kJ/g) (DED) excluding drinks from 3-day unweighed diet diaries. Percentage of DED from fruit and vegetables. DED from Daily energy intake (kJ/day) from: milk, fruit juice, fruit squash and cordials, fizzy drinks, water and flavoured water, hot chocolate, teas, coffee and alcohol. Dietary habits: percentage of DED consumed at breakfast, lunch, evening meal/ time of energy consumption; size of portions; frequency of breakfast consumption. Measured between the ages of 10.6-13.9.

Covariates of changes in body fat during adolescence:

We will examine whether the effect of changes in levels of physical activity, dietary intake and dietary habits on body fat are influenced by various genetic (presence of the high risk FTO genotype (rs9939609: comparing A:A; A:T; T:T), developmental (changes in pubertal development (Tanner stage) between the ages of 10.6 - 13.9) and socioeconomic (parental socioeconomic status, level of maternal education, mother and partner BMI) risk factors.

Statistical analyses:

Following descriptive analyses, the main method of analysis will be linear regression. Models will be produced for the regression of changes in fat mass and fat mass index between the ages of 13.9 - 15, on changes in levels of physical activity (ages 11.8 - 13.9) and dietary intake and habits (ages 10.6 - 13.9), with adjustment for established genetic, developmental, and socioeconomic risk factors for excess weight gain during adolescence. Potential effect modification will be tested in these models by including interaction terms for: changes in physical activity (greater than than or equal to 15 minutes a day of MVPA to less than 15 minutes) x fruit and vegetable consumption (greater than than or equal to 5 portions a day to less than 5 portions a day) and dietary intake and physical activity variables with participant sex.

Expected outcomes:

The proposed study will provide the information necessary to more effectively identify the behavioural targets of obesity prevention programmes by, 1) modelling the independent and interdependent effects of changes in dietary intake, dietary habits and levels of physical activity on changes in body fat, 2) providing a resource which will allow more precise estimates of the feasibility, likely effect and cost effectiveness of an intervention to be made, 3) evaluating the impact of naturally occurring changes to behaviour, within a context of known risk factors for obesity in adolescence. This method might also provide an empirical template for modelling behaviour change with observational data which can be applied in other behaviours or populations.

Date proposal received: 
Monday, 5 July, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Monday, 5 July, 2010
Keywords: 
Diet, Eating Disorder
Primary keyword: 

B1016 - Exploring missing data mechanisms in drugs and alcohol data MAR or MNAR - 02/07/2010

B number: 
B1016
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Ian White (MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Prof Kate Tilling (University of Bristol, UK), Dan Kackson (MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, UK)
Title of project: 
Exploring missing data mechanisms in drugs and alcohol data: MAR or MNAR?
Proposal summary: 

BACKGROUND

Missing data is a major concern in ALSPAC and other longitudinal studies. Many analyses assume that data are missing at random (MAR), but this assumption is hard to verify from data and is often not very plausible.

ALSPAC has sources of data that offer the opportunity to learn more about the missing data mechanism, and in particular about whether MAR is true:

1. Repeated attempts to contact participants at each wave.

2. External sources of data from schools and SATs.

Repeated attempts have previously been used to learn about missing data mechanisms , , but not in longitudinal data sets.

OBJECTIVES

1. To explore the missing data mechanism for key variables on drugs, alcohol and conduct disorder.

2. To develop appropriate statistical methods, in particular for handling repeated attempts data at multiple waves.

DATA

Main outcomes: drug use, alcohol use and conduct disorder derived from clinic visits at ages 11, 13, 15 and 17, and questionnaires at intermediate ages.

Related outcomes: schools data at years 6 and 11; SATs data at ages 11 and 14.

Auxiliary variables: the number of letters sent before each clinic visit happened (invitation, reminder, last chance) and before each questionnaire was returned (initial, reminder). Ideally we would like to use further information on whether "defaulters" were phoned and dates of letters, but we understand this is not currently available.

Covariates including sex, socio-economic status, ethnicity.

PLAN OF ANALYSIS

1. Descriptive statistics, including associations of the main outcomes with the related outcomes and the auxiliary variables.

2. Using related outcomes: assuming the main outcomes are MAR when the related outcomes are included in the model, explore the missing data mechanism when the related outcomes are not in the model. This could be done using multiple imputation.

3. Using repeated attempts: develop and fit models for repeated attempts at multiple waves. Hence explore developmental trajectories (perhaps using latent class models).

Paul Clarke and Michael Spratt are doing a related project focussing on repeated attempts at a single time point, and we will work with them to ensure that the two projects complement each other. We will work with Matt Hickman (drugs and alcohol strand) and Glyn Lewis ("risky behaviours" strand) to ensure that this project fits well with their strands.

PROPOSED OUTPUTS

1. A statistical paper describing the models for repeated attempts at multiple waves.

2. An epidemiological paper describing what has been learned about missing data in ALSPAC

Date proposal received: 
Friday, 2 July, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Friday, 2 July, 2010
Keywords: 
Primary keyword: 

B1027 - Long-term educational and social outcomes in late preterm infants - 01/07/2010

B number: 
B1027
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Philip Peacock (University of Bristol, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Prof Alan Emond (Not used 0, Not used 0), Prof John Henderson (Not used 0, Not used 0), Dr David Odd (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Title of project: 
Long-term educational and social outcomes in late preterm infants
Proposal summary: 

Background

It is well known that premature birth is associated with poorer long-term cognitive and developmental outcomes compared to infants born at term. In particular, there has been a large amount of work investigating the consequences of extreme prematurity (Wood 2000). However, far less is known about the long-term outcomes of premature infants born after 32 weeks gestation, often referred to as 'late preterm', who often have a relatively smooth neonatal course. A report by the American Academy of Pediatrics highlighted late preterm infants as a 'population at risk', whilst acknowledging a lack of research demonstrating long-term medical, neurological and developmental outcomes for these infants (Engle 2007).

A large US study has shown an increased risk of developmental delay in late preterm infants as compared to those born at term, although this only examined outcomes up to five years of age (Morse 2009). Another US study demonstrated poorer school outcomes in those born at 32 to 33 weeks gestation compared to full term infants, although this only looked at outcomes up to age 11 (Chyi 2008). A Swedish cohort demonstrated those born at late preterm were less likely to enter higher education compared to term infants but did not examine school performance throughout childhood (Lindstrom 2007). The cohort also demonstrated those born late preterm were more likely to be living with parents into adulthood than those born at term. To our knowledge educational and social outcomes have not yet been investigated in a group of late-preterm infants in the UK. Previous work using ALSPAC has investigated IQ at age 8 in late preterm infants (Odd, unpublished), but as yet has not examined school or social outcomes.

The aim of this project is to examine educational and social outcomes of infants born between 32 and 36+6 weeks of gestation when compared to those born at full term, generally defined as a gestation 37 weeks or greater.

Use of ALSPAC data

The ALSPAC cohort comprises a large number of young people, giving good statistical power for comparing infants born at different gestational ages. The detailed data collected over many years allows examination of and adjustment for potential confounding factors such as socioeconomic status. Collecting new data would incur a large financial cost, and a longitudinal approach would take many years before yielding results. Compared to extremely preterm infants, the neonatal management of late-preterm infants has not changed significantly over the past twenty years, and so it would be reasonable to use the findings of this study to make recommendations for infants born at late preterm today. Finally, the ongoing contact with the original cohort allows the potential for a recall study in the future (see long-term plan below).

Long-term plan/project team

Phil Peacock is currently working as an Academic Clinical Fellow in Paediatrics, and planning to undertake a PhD from September 2012. His work is being supervised by Prof Alan Emond, Prof John Henderson and Dr David Odd. The initial plan is to conduct a small study investigating Key Stage 1 educational outcomes in the interest group during a 6 month full-time research block, commencing September 2010. Following on from this, the aim is to prepare a PhD proposal to fully investigate educational and social outcomes with late preterm infants in ALSPAC. A proposed extension to the secondary data analysis is to recall a group from ALSPAC who were born at 32 to 36 weeks gestation and conduct MRI head scanning to examine long-term neuroradiological findings. Separate ALSPAC approval, as well as appropriate ethics approval and funding, will be sought if it is decided to pursue this.

Date proposal received: 
Thursday, 1 July, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Thursday, 1 July, 2010
Keywords: 
Social Science, Stress, Social Conditions
Primary keyword: 

B1017 - Hyperbolic Discounting in Pregnancy - 01/07/2010

B number: 
B1017
Principal applicant name: 
Kyle R Fluegge (Ohio State University, USA)
Co-applicants: 
Title of project: 
Hyperbolic Discounting in Pregnancy
Proposal summary: 

This project examines the role that hyperbolic discounting plays as a determinant of unhealthy

birth outcomes. If pregnant women discount hyperbolically, a reduction in personal delivery costs (via public insurance) will exacerbate the disparity between each woman's short- and long-run rates of time preference, leading to greater engagement in unhealthy behaviors with long-run impacts. This disparity in rates of time preference will also make it more costly for women to maintain traditional commitment mechanisms designed to keep them on their optimal path to achieving a healthy birth outcome.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Assume there exists a time t* (less than T) during pregnancy at which a woman is indifferent between two

choices with different rewards: (a) engaging frequently in risky behavior(s) and experiencing a premature and/or low birth weight (LBW) baby at time T (denoted by C) and (b) engaging minimally in risky behavior(s) and not experiencing a premature and/or LBW baby at time T0 (denoted by C0), where T less than T0. We assume that C0 has the greater payoff and that p(t) (p0(t)) is the probability density of a birth before T (T0). Furthermore, we assume that C0 has both a non-zero probability of a premature and a late birth, and that T and T0 are the anticipated birth dates.

When there is greater time to birth, I hypothesize the woman exhibits patience to obtain the reward of a healthy birth outcome (C0). However, as the time to birth grows shorter and shorter, she becomes increasingly impatient and seeks instant gratification via any number of risky behaviors. My research question is the following: To what extent, if at all, does hyperbolic discounting occur in pregnancy?

I assume that p(v; t) is the probability density that C is realized at time v greater than t such that p(t; t) greater than p0(t; t) for t less than T with the assumption that if the density of premature birth at time v drops off monotonically as we move away from the anticipated realization time (T or T0), then the inequality seems reasonable as the density should have dropped off less at t for C than for C0. Since progression of pregnancy up to 39 weeks reduces the expected payoff from C (due to the reduced probability of having a premature birth), it follows that C p(t; t) less than C0 p0(t; t) for t less than T. Given these previous assumptions, we can then show that up to a certain point t* (say, the beginning of the third trimester of pregnancy), a woman might have engaged in protective behaviors such as quitting smoking and drinking alcohol upon learning she was pregnant only to return to those behaviors later in the pregnancy (sometime after t* ) given their addictive nature

(see Dasgupta and Maskin [1] for the proof of this).

EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK

The dependent variables will include number of times per day smoked, number of glasses of wine / beer

drank per day, illicit drug use, folic acid use, coffee consumption, amount of exercising, desire to lose weight, and mental status (i.e., depression, anxiety, etc.). Independent variables will include Knowledge from medical professional of the negatives and positives of certain health behaviors, External Environmental variables (previous abortion, spouse smokes, work exposure to smoke, dieting/desire to lose weight, etc.), Previous Health issues (mother was low-birth weight herself and/or mother smoked during her pregnancy, family illnesses), and Demographics (race, age, income, education, etc.). I use the trimester time (i.e., given by 8 weeks, 18 weeks, and 32 weeks) and mother's pre-pregnancy BMI as stratification variables. Thus one empirical specification would be the following:

smoke_ij = B_1 + B_2 * K + B_3 * EE + B_4 * PH + B_5 * D + e_i,

where i = 1, 2, or 3 is the trimester indicator and j = 1, 2, 3, or 4 is the BMI category. The hypothesis of interest is that knowledge of the effects of smoking will have less of an impact on a woman's actual behavior as she grows impatient by the third trimester, her external environment will inuence her to smoke more, and previous health issues will not be as significant in avoiding smoking behavior by the third trimester. This specification would extend analogously to the other behaviors mentioned.

Date proposal received: 
Thursday, 1 July, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Thursday, 1 July, 2010
Keywords: 
Obstetrics, Pregnancy
Primary keyword: 

B1018 - Does late introduction of chewy foods during weaning impact on later childhood food and nutrient intake - 29/06/2010

B number: 
B1018
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Pauline Emmett (University of Bristol, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Dr Janet Warren (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Title of project: 
Does late introduction of chewy foods during weaning impact on later childhood food and nutrient intake?
Proposal summary: 

To investigate some possible modulators of dietary habits in young children which may influence diet at later ages. The age at which chewy (lumpy) foods were introduced to infants during weaning has been shown to relate to later eating behaviour and fruit and vegetable intake. The recommended age is between 6 and 9 months and previous work in ALSPAC has shown that introduction after 9 months is associated with higher levels of chosiness at 15 months and 4 & 7 years and lower intake of fruit & vegetables at 7 years as assessed by questionnaire (Northstone 2001, Coultard 2009). This has not been investigated at younger ages or by the more explicit method of recording foods as eaten. It is likely that there are also other effects on long term diet, such as lower meat intake and eating a less varied diet , which have not previously been investigated.

Dietary information has been collected repeatedly from a 10% sub-sample of the ALSPAC cohort (around 1000 children) at the following ages: 8 months, 1 1/2 years, 3 1/2 years, 5 years and 7 years (the whole ALSPAC cohort was invited to provide dietary information at this age, over 7000 did so). Information was collected by three-day unweighed food records completed by parents or carers at each age. All the dietary data have been coded and prepared and are ready for use. The children were weighed and measured each time their diet was assessed.

Information is available on a range of socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, including the following: parental education, social class and age, housing tenure, financial difficulties and some questionnaire information about physical activities (e.g. time spent watching TV, walking, cycling etc.).

We will use the data collected in ALSPAC to answer the following research questions:

1. Do children eat differently at 8 &18 months, 3 1/2y, 5y and 7y if they are introduced to chewy foods after 9 months?

2. Which nutrient or food group intakes are particularly affected at each age?

3. Is there any lasting effect (up to 7 years) on particlar nutrient or food group intakes?

4. Is there an effect on the variety of foods eaten at each age?

5. Is there any effect on growth up to 7 years?

Date proposal received: 
Tuesday, 29 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Tuesday, 29 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Diet, Eating Disorder
Primary keyword: 

B1014 - Identification of genetic factors determining human head circumference at birth and during infancy - 23/06/2010

B number: 
B1014
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Dennis Mook-Kanamori (Erasmus University Medical Center, Rottterdam, the Netherlands, Europe)
Co-applicants: 
Dr Vincent Jaddoe (Erasmus University Medical Center, Rottterdam, the Netherlands, Europe), Dr Beate St Pourcain (University of Bristol, UK), Dr Nic Timpson (University of Bristol, UK)
Title of project: 
Identification of genetic factors determining human head circumference at birth and during infancy
Proposal summary: 

The mammalian brain has undergone significant expansion in its evolution to man, and is over 3 times bigger than our closest primate relatives (1). Head circumference is highly correlated with brain size, and is used clinically as a proxy measurement for brain volume. Major work has been done in the identification and functional analysis of genes causing marked reduction in head circumference/brain size (Primary Microcephaly/Seckel syndrome,ref. 2-6). Several genes have been identified, all of which have centrosomal functions (6-8). Two of these, ASPM and MCPH1 have been found to undergo significant adaptive evolution in primates (9,10). However, to date, variants in these genes have not been found to be associated with normal population variation in head circumference/brain size (11).

Following on from the identification of Mendelian genes for these disorders of extreme reduction in head circumference (-4 to -10sd), it is now of interest to identify the factors responsible for variation in head circumference and brain size in the general population, especially during early development. Given the wide variation in growth of head cicumference during early childhood, all measures will be standardised using the GrowthAnalyzer (http://www.growthanalyser.org) to obtain the best possible reference standards within each sample. Measures at birth will be adjusted for gestational age.

A meta-analysis on variation in early head circumference at birth and early childhood (0 to 4 years) is proposed as part of the EGG/EAGLE consortium with a follow-up of genome-wide/ near genome-wide significant signals within the remainder of the ALSPAC sample.

Once identified and validated, such genes will contribute to the understanding of developmental pathways that influence cognitive and brain development and address whether common variants are acting in developmental pathways already implicated by mendelian genetics in brain size determination.

Date proposal received: 
Wednesday, 23 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Wednesday, 23 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Endocrine, Genetics, Obesity, Weight
Primary keyword: 

B972 - Statistical modelling of longitudinal data from cohort studies to better understand phenotypes of asthma - 23/06/2010

B number: 
B972
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Raquel Granell (University of Bristol, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Prof John Henderson (Not used 0, Not used 0), Prof Jonathan Sterne (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Title of project: 
Statistical modelling of longitudinal data from cohort studies to better understand phenotypes of asthma
Proposal summary: 

Objectives

1. To develop and apply latent class and other statistical models that combine symptoms and physiological measurements to define and refine asthma phenotypes in children in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents & Children (ALSPAC) study.

2. To develop and apply methods to validate and replicate phenotypes in other large, population-based cohort studies and to compare phenotype definitions and their associations with asthma risk factors.

3. To examine associations between genetic variants identified through genomewide association studies of asthma with asthma phenotypes, in order to understand the biological pathways leading to different phenotypes.

Summary of proposal

Several studies have demonstrated the utility of the latent class approach in identifying phenotypes that have clear associations with clinically relevant outcomes [1-4]. Different approaches to phenotype definition appear to elucidate different aspects of the relationship between symptoms and asthma-related markers. There remains a need to develop these approaches to further investigate the validity and cross-cohort replicability of proposed phenotypes, and their suitability as proxies for underlying pathophysiological constructs of asthma.

The ALSPAC cohort (13,000 children born 1991-92) includes longitudinal reporting of respiratory symptoms (cough, wheeze, breathlessness, trigger factors) collected prospectively from birth to 17 years and direct measurements of lung function, bronchial responsiveness and allergy at different ages. In my previous work on the ALSPAC study I used reported wheezing at 7 time points to define wheezing phenotypes, in a "single dimensional" approach [1]. To refine and improve our understanding of asthma phenotypes, I will investigate "multi-dimensional" approaches in which different types of phenotypic information (for example, frequency and duration of respiratory symptoms, atopy and bronchial responsiveness) are included in latent class models. A multidimensional approach that uses a full range of symptoms, measures of allergy and measures of lung function to define phenotypes may better cover the distinctive pathophysiological features that represent the complexity and heterogeneity of asthma. Latent class models will be fitted using Mplus software (with which I am already familiar). Pre-selection of the most relevant variables using Principal Components Analysis may be required, to limit the number of parameters in the model.

The next step will be validation and replication of the phenotypes identified in analyses of ALSPAC data. Three population-based childhood cohorts have agreed to contribute data to these analyses: The Stockholm Children Allergy and Environmental Prospective Birth Cohort Study (BAMSE) [5] (4,089 children, born 1994); The prevention and incidence of asthma and mite allergy cohort (PIAMA) [6] based in Groningen (3291 children, born 1996-97) and The Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study [7] (2868 children, born 1989-91). All four cohorts, including ALSPAC, have respiratory symptoms from repeat questionnaires and lung function measurements, bronchial challenge and allergy tests at different intervals through childhood.

In order to validate and replicate the derived asthma phenotypes in other cohorts, I will have to take into account differences in the nature, number and timing of measures among the cohorts. I will use cubic splines (nonlinear functions defined by smoothly joined piecewise polynomials) [8] to derive parametric curves representing the ALSPAC-derived asthma phenotypes. These curves will be used to interpolate model parameters appropriate to the number and timing of measurements in each dataset.

The accuracy and generalisability of the models will be validated across the independent cohorts. To investigate phenotypic variation among cohorts I will measure the loss of fit by using deviance (-2 x log-likelihood) differences. Such an approach has been used previously to derive generalisable prognostic models for the prognosis of HIV-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy [9]. The performance of candidate latent class models in single cohorts will be measured by comparing the fit using the parameters estimated from the full data set with the fit using parameters re-estimated from single cohort data alone. The best-generalising model is defined as that for which the loss of fit in single cohort data is smallest.

ALSPAC, BAMSE, PIAMA and the cross-sectional study MAGICS/ISAAC (Hannover, 1,400 children) will have comparable genomewide data available through participation in the GABRIEL Study [10]. GABRIEL is a genomewide association study involving 14 European countries. Common genetic variants that are associated with childhood asthma have been identified, and more are likely to be reported over the next 12 to 24 months. Replication among these cohorts will enable me to investigate associations of candidate-gene variants in known functional pathways with different asthma phenotypes, and hence to determine if there is genetic evidence for biological differences between derived phenotypes. Between-phenotype variation in associations with genetic variants will also provide objective evidence for the validity of derived phenotypes.

Date proposal received: 
Wednesday, 23 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Wednesday, 23 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Allergies, Respiratory, Atopy
Primary keyword: 

B808 - Genome-wide association study of acne vulgaris and 2d4D - 23/06/2010

B number: 
B808
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Dave Evans (University of Bristol, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Prof Nick Martin (Queensland Institute of Medical Research, ROW), Prof Tim Spector (King's College London, UK), Prof Dorret Boomsma (VU University Medical Centre of Amsterdam, Europe)
Title of project: 
Genome-wide association study of acne vulgaris and 2d:4D.
Proposal summary: 

Acne vulgaris is a common inflammatory disease of the pilosebaceous glands characterized by inflamed (papules, pustules, nodules and cysts) and noninflamed lesions (comedomes) on the face, neck, chest and back. The prevalence of acne in adolescents has been reported as being between 35% and 90%, depending on the method of classification, with peak incidence occurring at between 14 and 17 years in females, and 16 and 19 years in males (1,2). As well as the physical pain and discomfort that acne produces, it is well documented that acne sufferers experience higher levels of psychological distress, are more self-conscious and have a poorer self-image than age-matched controls. A possible role

for genetic factors in the development of acne is based on the observation that relatives of affected individuals are at increased risk of developing acne compared with unrelated individuals. Indeed several recent twin studies suggest that acne and its severity are strongly influenced by genetic factors (3-6).

The purpose of this study is to use the genome-wide association approach to identify loci that contribute to acne severity. We intend to pool genome-wide association data in a meta-analysis using data from other centres including twins from Queensland Institute of Medical Research (Nick Martin), twins from Free University Amsterdam (Dorret Boomsma) and twins from King's College London (Tim Spector).

1 Stathakis V, Kilkenny M, Marks R. Descriptive epidemiology of acne

vulgaris in the community. Australas J Dermatol 1997; 38:115-23.

2 Kilkenny M, Merlin K, Plunkett A, Marks R. The prevalence of common

skin conditions in Australian school students: 3. Acne vulgaris.

Br J Dermatol 1998; 39:840-5.

3 Friedman GD. Twin studies of disease heritability based on medical

records: application to acne vulgaris. Acta Genet Med Gemellol 1984;

33:487-95.

4 Walton S, Wyatt EH, Cunliffe WJ. Genetic control of sebum excretion

and acne-a twin study. Br J Dermatol 1988; 118:393-6.

5 Bataille V, Sneider H, MacGregor AJ et al. The influence of genetics

and environmental factors in the pathogenesis of acne: a twin study

of acne in women. J Invest Dermatol 2002; 119:1317-22.

6 Evans, DM, Kirk KM, Nyholt DR et al. Teenage acne is influenced by genetic factors. British Journal of Dermatology, 152(3), 579-81.

Date proposal received: 
Wednesday, 23 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Wednesday, 23 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Skin
Primary keyword: 

B1015 - Genome-wide association study of acne vulgaris - 23/06/2010

B number: 
B1015
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Dave Evans (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Co-applicants: 
Dr Nick Martin (Not used 0, Not used 0), Prof Tim Spector (King's College London, UK)
Title of project: 
Genome-wide association study of acne vulgaris.
Proposal summary: 

Acne vulgaris is a common inflammatory disease of the pilosebaceous glands characterized by inflamed (papules, pustules, nodules and cysts) and noninflamed lesions (comedomes) on the face, neck, chest and back. The prevalence of acne in adolescents has been reported as being between 35% and 90%, depending on the method of classification, with peak incidence occurring at between 14 and 17 years in females, and 16 and 19 years in males (Stathakis et al, 1997; Kilkenny et al. 1998). As well as the physical pain and discomfort that acne produces, it is well documented that acne sufferers experience higher levels of psychological distress, are more self-conscious and have a poorer self-image than age-matched controls. A possible role for genetic factors in the development of acne is based on the observation that relatives of affected individuals are at increased risk of developing acne compared with unrelated individuals. However, related individuals share similar environments as well as genes. By using the classical twin design which compares the similarity of monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs with that of dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs I was able to show previously that acne is a highly heritable trait (Evans et al. 2005).

No group has performed a genome-wide association study of acne to date. This study will combine the power of the ALSPAC, QIMR and TwinsUK cohorts to detect common variants underlying risk of acne/acne severity in a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies. Variants which are shown to be associated with acne will be followed up using single SNP genotyping in the remainder of the ALSPAC cohort for whom genome-wide data is not available.

Date proposal received: 
Wednesday, 23 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Wednesday, 23 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Genetics, Skin
Primary keyword: 

B1013 - The impact of parental self-harm on offspring self-harm mental health and educational performance - 18/06/2010

B number: 
B1013
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Galit Geulayov (University of Bristol, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Prof David Gunnell (University of Bristol, UK), Dr Chris Metcalfe (University of Bristol, UK)
Title of project: 
The impact of parental self-harm on offspring self-harm, mental health and educational performance.
Proposal summary: 

AIMS

Overall aim

To investigate the association of suicide and suicide attempt in parents with suicidal behaviour, mental health, social and academic functioning in offspring.

Specific objectives

1. To investigate whether:

a) Exposure to parental self harm (fatal or non-fatal) confers an independent risk for self harm, suicidal thoughts, suicidal plans, suicidal attempts, psychiatric symptoms, diminished social and academic functioning beyond that observed in offspring exposed to parental mental or physically disabling illness and offspring of parents who have no history of self harm or mental and/or physically disabling illness.

b) Exposure to parental death by suicide confers an independent risk for self harm, suicidal thoughts, suicidal plans, suicidal attempts, psychiatric symptoms, diminished social and academic functioning beyond that of exposure to parental death by a cause other than suicide.

2. To examine whether outcomes in offspring i.e. self harm, suicidal thoughts, suicidal plans, suicidal attempts, psychiatric symptoms, social and academic indices differ depending on the gender of the self harming parent and/or gender of offspring.

3. To examine whether age of exposure to self harm of a parent modifies the relationship between exposure to self harm and self harm, suicidal thoughts, suicidal plans, suicidal attempts, psychiatric symptoms, social and academic functioning in offspring.

4. To assess whether all these exposure factors (gender of proband and offspring, age of exposure, type of self harm) are related to the age of first onset of self harm, suicidal thoughts, suicidal plans, suicidal attempts, behaviour or mental health problem in the offspring.

5. To examine whether exposure to different forms of self-harm in parents (i.e. suicide versus attempted suicide) is associated with specific self-harming behaviours (i.e. suicidal thoughts, suicidal plans, suicidal attempts, self harm with no intention to die), psychiatric symptoms, social and academic parameters in offspring.

Date proposal received: 
Friday, 18 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Friday, 18 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Behavioural Problems
Primary keyword: 

B1012 - The genetics of congenital melanocytic naevi - 18/06/2010

B number: 
B1012
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Veronica Kinsler (Institute of Child Health, University College London, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Prof Eugene Healy (University of Southampton, UK), Prof Gudrun Moore (Institute of Child Health, University College London, UK), Prof Neil Sebire (Institute of Child Health, University College London, UK)
Title of project: 
The genetics of congenital melanocytic naevi.
Proposal summary: 

1) MC1R - proposal to use 300 Children in Focus blood samples, selected by the following criteria:

a) those who have had a pigmentary phenotype recorded at 49 months (hair and eye colour etc)

b) the subset of those children who did not have a congenital melanocytic naevus recorded at 49 months

At Great Ormond Street Hospital we have recruited 110 families to our study into the genetics of congenital melanocytic naevi (CMN). CMN is a developmental neurocutaneous disorder of unknown aetiology in which affected individuals have extensive pigmented lesions covering up to 80% of the body surface and up to 400 lesions. The cutaneous lesions are associated with a range of neurological abnormalities in around 20% of affected children, for which all children are screened in the absence of any identified biomarkers. A small proportion of children develop fatal malignant melanoma, again necessitating blanket screening.

We have identified a high prevalence of melanocortin-1-receptor (MC1R) variants in this cohort (70 - 80%) and have shown a statistically significant association between certain polymorphisms and a more severe clinical phenotype. This is a potentially useful finding in a clinical setting as generally it is those with a more severe phenotype who develop malignant and neurological complications. We cannot however adequately evaluate the relevance of this finding as the existing publications on UK prevalence for MC1R variants is conflicting. Two relatively small studies have found prevalences of 25% and 55% of at least one variant. We have attempted to recruit a case-matched control group using the participant families to identify geographically-, age- and gender-matched children. The return on our recruitment has been very low, and simultaneous problems amplifying DNA from buccal swabs returned by families in the post has shrunk our control group to inadequate numbers.

The use of 300 Children in Focus ALSPAC cases' data and samples for whom a pigmentary phenotype (hair and eye colour) is available and who were not found to have congenital melanocytic naevi will be as a control group to establish the normal prevalence of MC1R polymorphisms in a representative UK population. The figure of 300 was arrived at by sample size calculation. The whole of the MC1R gene will need to be sequenced as there are a large number (greater than 20) common polymorphisms described. DNA will be sequenced by the UCL sequencing service. The prevalence of polymorphisms and pigmentary phenotyping data will then be compared statistically to that of the CMN group to see if MC1R is involved as a predisposing factor for the development of CMN.

2)Endocrine and cancer family history

We have also found that the families in the CMN group appear to have a high prevalence of endocrine disorders and perhaps also of cancer. There are other disorders of pigmentation which have associated endocrine abnormalities (for example McCune-Albright Syndrome) and many which are associated with increased susceptibility to tumours (Neurofibromatosis, Tuberous Sclerosis). It is again biased to collect family history data from a hospital based control population, and although we have done this for our control set the numbers are very small and not statistically useable. ALSPAC data about family history would be very valuable control data for this exploratory arm of this genetics study, enabling us to make decisions about candidate genes and pathways

Date proposal received: 
Friday, 18 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Friday, 18 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Allergies, Genetics, Respiratory, Atopy, Skin
Primary keyword: 

B1011 - The relation of IGF1 to atopy - 18/06/2010

B number: 
B1011
Principal applicant name: 
Prof Seif Shaheen (University of Bristol, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Prof John Henderson (Not used 0, Not used 0), Prof John Holloway (Not used 0, Not used 0), Dr Susan Ring (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Title of project: 
The relation of IGF1 to atopy
Proposal summary: 

There has been speculation that an atopic predisposition might increase susceptibility to cancer, although convincing evidence has been lacking. An exception is prostate cancer, for which a positive association with atopy1, and especially dust mite sensitisation2, has been reported, but not explained. A strong predictor of prostate cancer risk is raised levels of IGF-13. The observation that Th2 cytokines promote the expression of IGF-14 is in keeping with the hypothesis that atopy may increase risk of prostate cancer. However, it is also possible that IGF-1 may drive atopy. Laboratory studies have suggested that IGF-1 promotes Th2 responses and raised IgE5;6. Furthermore, IGF-1 is a primary mediator of the effects of growth hormone, and cord blood IGF-1 levels are positively associated with size at birth7. This may have relevance to the, albeit inconsistent, evidence linking enhanced fetal growth with atopy8;9. Interestingly, IGF-1 levels fall with increasing parity10, raising the possibility that IGF-1 might partly explain the relation between parity (birth order) and atopy in the offspring. However, epidemiological studies on the relation between IGF-1 and atopy are lacking.

Date proposal received: 
Friday, 18 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Friday, 18 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Allergies, Genetics, Respiratory, Atopy
Primary keyword: 

B1006 - EGG 95th Percentile BMI study - 16/06/2010

B number: 
B1006
Principal applicant name: 
Struan F A Grant (University of Pennsylvania, USA)
Co-applicants: 
Hakon Hakonarson (Not used 0, Not used 0), Jonathan Bradfield (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Title of project: 
EGG 95th Percentile BMI study
Proposal summary: 

Not available

Date proposal received: 
Wednesday, 16 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Wednesday, 16 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Genetics, Obesity, Weight
Primary keyword: 

B1007 - Childhood obesity and severe antenatal maternal stress - 15/06/2010

B number: 
B1007
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Kathryn Abel (University of Manchester, UK)
Co-applicants: 
Dr Louise Howard (King's College London, UK), Dr Nic Timpson (University of Bristol, UK), Prof Gene Feder (University of Bristol, UK)
Title of project: 
Childhood obesity and severe antenatal maternal stress
Proposal summary: 

Childhood Obesity and Severe Antenatal Maternal Stress

Obesity is a complex public health problem that is a growing threat to children's health, as well as a current and future drain on National Health Service (NHS) resources. Obesity already costs the NHS directly around £1 billion a year and the UK economy a further £2.3 to £2.6 billion in indirect costs. If this present trend continues, by 2010 the annual cost to the economy could be £3.6 billion a year.

By the IOTF's international standards nearly 27.5% of girls and 22% of boys in UK aged 2-15 were found to be overweight, including 5.5% of boys and 7.2% of girls who were obese in 2002. The IOTF analysis indicates a marked acceleration in the trend from the mid-1980s onwards. Using the national Body Mass Index percentiles approach (adopted by the Department of Health assuming 15% overweight including 5% obesity in 1990) 30.7% of girls and 30.3 % of boys were overweight, including 16% who were obese, by 2002.(See DH weblink)Furthermore, childhood obesity is one of the key predictors of adult obesity. Evidence of the long term effectiveness of obesity interventions is mixed (see Mend website; ) once obesity is established (see Oude Luttikhuis et al 2009). Identifying early risk factors for child obesity may have important preventive implications for future public health strategy.

In humans, adverse early life experiences such as childhood trauma, neglect and abuse are associated with the development of psychosocial disorders (Heim & Nemeroff, 1999; Kaufman et al., 2000; Heim et al., 2002; MacDonald et al., 2008). In animal models, an adverse early life experience causes abnormalities in neurodevelopment (Pickering et al., 2006), increased stress response as measured by plasma corticosterone (Meaney et al., 1993; Pihoker et al., 1993), and behavioural deficits (Pryce and Feldon, 2003; Pryce et al., 2005; Slotten et al., 2006) in adulthood.

Numerous studies report relationships between palatable food (rich in sugar and saturated fat), and emotional states and stress. In humans and in animal models, emotions influence food intake and choice of food and palatable foods high in fat and carbohydrate improve mood and modify stress responsivity. For example, subjects report a preference for palatable food rich in saturated fat and sugar during negative emotions (Macht, 2008) and adult individuals subjected to psychological stress in a laboratory setting are reported to eat greater amounts of palatable food compared to control groups (Oliver et al., 2000). In adults, depression and anxiety can also be linked to compulsive behaviours and craving for palatable food which induce feelings of pleasure (Kelley et al., 2005; Paterson and Markou, 2007). A study in UK school children reported that higher self-reported stress scores were associated with increased intake of fatty food compared to fruits and vegetables (Cartwright et al., 2003). These data suggest that the direction of the association is that humans subjected to stressful circumstances (chronically and acutely) are more likely to crave palatable, high saturated fat and high sugar containing foods or 'comfort foods'.

Dallman (2005) described the phenomenon of 'comfort food' or 'comfort eating' as self-medication with food.Adam and Epel, 2007 propose that stress-stimulated consumption of palatable food is a form of reward-based eating because palatable high-fat diet or 'comfort food' modulates hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity and indirectly blunts the stress response. In other words, the craving for such foods derives from their effect on the HPA axis which the presence of the stress has activated acutely or chronically. Animal data support the notion that consuming such a diet can have a beneficial effect by modulating the stress response: rats consuming molar sucrose solution and sweetened vegetable shortening (lard), in addition to regular chow, showed attenuated ACTH responses to restraint stress and lower plasma corticosteronecompared to those consuming chow alone (Pecoraro et al., 2004;la Fleur 2005). Similarly, rats exposed to lard for 2 h per day for 7 weeks also showed a decreased stress response compared to rats consuming chow only (Kinzig et al., 2008). Alterations in hippocampal GR mRNA and hypothalamic CRH mRNA, key mediators of HPA axis activity, are thought to be the mechanisms by which these diets alter the stress response (e.g. Morris 2010). Thus, data suggest that palatable high fat diets or comfort food have a role in ameliorating stress and possibly stress-related behaviour whether given chronically or as an option.

These studies focus on postnatal events in humans and animal models. It is well recognised that prenatal maternal stress alters HPA axis sensitivity in rodent models (e.g. Kapoor et al 2008; Liu et al 1997). Our work and others has provided evidence that in utero exposure to severe maternal stress can increase the risk of neuropsychiatric disorder i.e. schizophrenia and affective disorder (Khashan et al 2008; Khashan et al submitted) both of which are considered in part to result from altered HPA axis sensitivity.

Research Question

Does pregnancy-related and early postnatal exposure to domestic violence predict increased BMI in offspring of exposed mothers in the ALSPAC cohort?

Hypotheses

Primary hypothesis: a child exposed to severe early life stressors is more likely to become overweight or obese than children not exposed in this way manifest as a rightwards shift in the BMI (and or DXA derived fat mass) distribution by age 15 of exposed versus unexposed children.

Secondary hypotheses: i) as a result of exposure to maternal stress in utero, HPA axis sensitivity in exposed children is greater than in unexposed children (tested using salivary cortisol measures) ii) overweight or obesity occurs through increased intake of palatable or comfort foods in exposed versus unexposed children iii) intake of a high saturated fat and high carbohydrate diet reduces or modulate HPA axis sensitivity iv) overweight or childhood obesity is associated with reduced HPA axis sensitivity (mean salivary cortisol levels) in exposed children compared to exposed non-obese or normal weight children

Future hypotheses i) We will examine whether we may use birth weight (BW) of children exposed and unexposed as a proxy for early life stress. We would then examine BW and its association with later life BMI through the use of genotypes associated with it via the presence of key genetic loci associated with birth weight(Freathy et al 2010).

Method

We wish to use a model of early life stress indexed by the maternal experience of adverse life events and of domestic violence before conception, during pregnancy or in the first year of life, in order to assess effects on childhood growth and rates of overweight and obesity. We shall examine the distribution of the BMI and body composition (DXA) of children exposed in utero and postnatally to maternal domestic abuse and compare it to that of unexposed children and assess HPA axis sensitivity using salivary cortisol levels in obese/overweight and normal weight exposed children. Variables assigning abuse status to individual participants have already been derived (see below) and we seek permission to examine these in light of anthropometric, serological and genetic data.

All analysis will be undertaken collaboratively by Nic Timpson at the MRC CAiTE centre and as such we have not requested data transfer.

Exposure variables: Antenatal domestic violence has been assessed in the ALSPAC cohort at 18 weeks gestation. Participants were asked two questions on whether their partner had been emotionally cruel, and whether their partner had physically hurt them since the start of the pregnancy and to state how much it affected them on a scale from 'no effect' to 'affected a lot'. A woman will be considered to have experienced antenatal domestic violence if she responded positively (any level of effect) to either physical or emotional cruelty since the start of the pregnancy. Questions asking if their partner had been emotional or physically cruel have also been used to define postnatal domestic violence and this was reported at 2, 8, 21 and 33 months after the child was born, in each case referring to the period since the last questionnaire. Violence from the partner to the mother, partner to the child and mother to the child was reported by the mother in the same way at these times. The repeated responses will be summarised into a variable indicating the number of time points that violence was experienced since the birth, a separate variable for each of: violence occurring to the mother, to the child from partner or child from the mother. Other stressful life events will be assessed using the life events scale covering 13 life events including serious illness/death in the family, marital difficulties, financial problems etc. These were recorded by the mother at 8, 21 and 33 months after the birth.

Outcome variables:

Child Biometric Data: Information collected on birthweight and gestational age will be used along with the height, weight, ethnicity of the mother and parity of the child, to determine the birthweight centile of the child using the Gestation Network calculator; children in the lowest 10% will be counted as small for gestational age (SGA).BMI recorded atages21 months, 4, 7, 9, 11 and13 years of age usingheight and weight measurements in GP reports; as well asDXA fat mass at the same ages.

HPA axis sensitivity: we shall use salivary cortisol measures collected at ages xxx and compare mean and SD between exposed and unexposed children. (need to check availability).

Dietary records at age 10 yrs will be used to account for dietary/calorie intake.

Potential confounders: The following maternal characteristics will be measured as potential confounders of any association between stressors and child biometric measures: maternal age at the birth of the child, maternal socioeconomic status as assessed by the following variables: maternal education, (recorded at 32 weeks gestation simplified from a 5 item response into 3 categories: low (CSE, vocational), medium (O-level), high (A-level, degree)) and homeownership status, grouped as: own/mortgage versus rented (Cleland et al 2010; Crawford et al 2010). Smoking and alcohol use during pregnancy were determined at 18 weeks gestation. Women are considered to have smoked during pregnancy if they had smoked any form of tobacco in the 2 weeks prior to completion of the 18 week questionnaire. Women were also questioned on their alcohol use during pregnancy at 18 weeks gestation, responses were categorised into less than 1 glass (unit) per day and 1 or more glasses (units) per day.

Analysis

Simple analyses will be used to assess the association between severe early life stress exposure, measured at 18 weeks gestation and up to 33 weeks postnatally, and the biometric outcome variables.Multivariable analysis will be conducted using logistic regression to adjust for the following possible confounding factors: SES (maternal education, homeownership status), maternal marital status, maternal age, parity, ethnicity and paternal depression. Biometric variables will be handled as continuous variables initially to look for shifts in the distribution of weight in the exposed and unexposed groups by age. Bivariable associations between overweight, antenatal domestic violence and baseline characteristics of the mother and child will be assessed using chi-squared or t-tests. The association between antenatal domestic violence and child overweight will be further investigated using logistic regression. Generally, the data will be analysed in three stages: (i) calculation of unadjusted odds ratio of severe early life stressor (domestic violence and life events score) in relation to overweight; (ii) adjustment for possible confounding factors; (iii) addition of potential mediators to the model. To investigate the possible mediating effect of maternal depression on the association, mother with recorded depression (EPDS score greater than 13) will be excluded in a sensitivity analysis. A variable for domestic violence exposure i.e. no violence, antenatal violence only, antenatal and postnatal violence, postnatal violence only, will also be used to give a direct comparison of the different levels of exposure. If numbers are sufficient, gender interactions will also be explored.

A second set of analyses using a Chi square tests will assess the secondary hypotheses: the relationship between exposure and mean salivary cortisol levels. The divide the cases into exposed overweight/obese and exposed normal weight and

Multivariable analysis will be conducted using logistic regression to adjust for the following possible confounding factors: SES (maternal education, homeownership status), maternal marital status, maternal age, parity, smoking, ethnicity and paternal depression. Bivariable associations between salivary cortisol levels, antenatal domestic violence and baseline characteristics of the mother and child will be assessed using chi-squared or t-tests. The association between antenatal domestic violence and childhood salivary cortisol levels will be further investigated using logistic regression. Finally, dietary intake will be assessed as high or low in palatable food and/or calorie and a chi square test used to examine the association between maternal stress/domestic violence and dietary intake. Multivariable analysis will be conducted using logistic regression to adjust for the following possible confounding factors: SES (maternal education, homeownership status), maternal marital status, maternal age, smoking, parity, ethnicity and paternal depression.

Missing Data: We shall use the (MICE) with the ice command in Stata to impute missing values using chained equations. This will be carried out on the full dataset including all variables used in this analysis as well as additional variables known to be related to non-response.

Date proposal received: 
Tuesday, 15 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Tuesday, 15 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Depression, Endocrine, Obesity, Weight
Primary keyword: 

B1010 - Economic determinants of conduct disorder and oppositional defiance disorder - 14/06/2010

B number: 
B1010
Principal applicant name: 
Dr Ellen Meara (Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA)
Co-applicants: 
Niels Rosenquist (Not used 0, Not used 0), Ezra Golberstein (Not used 0, Not used 0)
Title of project: 
Economic determinants of conduct disorder and oppositional defiance disorder
Proposal summary: 

Project outline: The Economic Determinants and Costs of Delinquent and Disruptive Behavior

Motivation:

Disruptive and delinquent behavior in children and adolescents is a strong predictor of anti-social and

criminal behavior later in adults. (Sentence on Criminality Rates) While there is a large literature on the

development ofthese traits, risk factors for these traits, and evidence of efficacious treatment to prevent

these behaviors, the use of evidence based interventions is very low as practiced in communities within

major countries like the United States and the United Kingdom. There is debate over what role economic

policy might play in addressing this issue.

Research Plan:

Our group, a task force of Harvard's Center for the Developing Child, has been asked to perform analyses

that show how public policy can impact the development of delinquent and disruptive behavior, as well as

the economic costs of these traits to society. We seek to collaborate with (and support) ALSPAC

researchers in a study of the economic antecedents of and costs from disruptive and delinquent behavior.

Utilizing multiple data sources (including the Add Health and NLSY cohort data in our possession) we

seek to look at "natural" economic experiments where exogenous changes in public policy might impact

the development of these traits. We also seek to estimate the life-long costs to society of individuals with

these traits.

Research Aims:

Aim 1:

Determine the role that changes in economic policy might have on the development of disruptive and

delinquent behavior, as defined by standard research practice from survey responses. These policies

include

a. Health insurance coverage for parents and their children

b. Insurance design to improve access to evidence-based treatment for co-occurring

disorders (i.e. ADD, depression)

c. Welfare poliCies

d. School reforms, including special needs education

To control for endogeneity in outcomes, we propose to use two forms of randomization based on the

various strengths of the available datasets. First, we plan to utilize specific genetic variants linked with

these traits, controlling for parental genotype when possible. Second, we will use variation across time

and geographic areas in welfare, health insurance, and related variables that affect prevention of CD/ODD

and the effective treatment of these disorders. Finally, we hope to interact these policy changes with

temperament measures as a way of understanding individual traits.

Aim 2:

Determine the cost of delinquency and disruptive behavior. We seek to estimate the suspected cost to

society of children who meet criteria for oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder, by looking at

predicted future rates of incarceration and health care costs (particularly mental health) thru linking

childhood measures of disruptive and delinquent behavior with future criminal activity and other

economic measures.

Needs from ALSPAC data (primarily to serves as controls for our results):

1) Longitud inal measures of parental inputs (including parenting styles)

2) School -level traits, including data on peer groups

3) Estimates of anti-social behavior in children

5) Targeted SNP-level data for a limited set of markers (MAO-A, primarily)

6) Reported health care utilization and youth services intervention(s) for the sample, including

detailed information on use of behavioral and pharmacological treatments of ODDleD and

related disorders.

Date proposal received: 
Monday, 14 June, 2010
Date proposal approved: 
Monday, 14 June, 2010
Keywords: 
Primary keyword: 

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