Risk perceptions are subjective judgements that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk (Darker, 2013), and they can influence emotions and behaviours (Ferrer & Klein, 2015; Paek & Hove, 2017). Accuracy is critical; underestimating or overestimating the level of threat and danger can have negative consequences. For example, underestimation of risk in a pandemic can reduce adoption of protective and preventative health behaviours (Dryhurst et al., 2020; Khosravi, 2020; Leppin & Aro, 2009). While overestimation of risk can increase hoarding behaviour, potentially leading to shortages of medications and personal protective equipment (Abrams & Greenhawt, 2020). Overestimation of risk may also lead to reluctance to return to normal activities as national lockdowns ease.

As well as influencing behaviour, risk perceptions can negatively impact mental health and wellbeing. Among young adults in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), wellbeing has reduced, and anxiety levels have almost doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to pre-pandemic levels (Kwong et al., 2020). This is an important public health issue, given that anxiety is associated with maladaptive coping strategies such as increased alcohol use (Dyer, Heron, Hickman, & Munafò, 2019). High risk perceptions may be one factor associated with this increase in anxiety and reduction in wellbeing. In this project, we will examine the bi-directional associations of COVID-19 risk perceptions with mental health, wellbeing, and risk behaviours, using genetic and self-report data. It is also important to examine the mental health and behavioural precursors of COVID-19 risk perceptions, given their influence on health behaviours.