B4448 - Risk prediction model for high blood pressure - 08/11/2023

B number: 
B4448
Principal applicant name: 
Rahul Chanchlani | McMaster University (Canada)
Co-applicants: 
Manish Sinha, Emily Haseler
Title of project: 
Risk prediction model for high blood pressure
Proposal summary: 

Background:
High blood pressure is becoming more common in children due to factors like obesity, lack of physical activity, and a high-salt diet. High blood pressure in childhood can lead to heart problems and kidney diseases in adulthood.

Purpose:
Regular blood pressure screening for all healthy children is recommended after the age of 3. However, regular screening can be burdensome and lead to unnecessary anxiety, overdiagnosis, and harm. The goal of our study is to develop a tool that can identify children at risk for high blood pressure, making the screening process more targeted and efficient. Our group, including doctors, researchers and patients, aim to develop a tool that can accurately estimate the likelihood of children who are at risk of BP at age of 5 years.

Methods:
Data from various national (n=4) and international (n=1) pediatric studies will be used to develop and validate this tool. It will consider factors such as parental characteristics (ethnicity, maternal age, body mass index, education status, etc), birth-related factors (birth weight, gestational age, etc), and early childhood factors (sex, breast feeding duration, weight, etc )known to be associated with high blood pressure.

Anticipated Outcomes:
The tool will simplify the process of screening for high blood pressure in children. It can be a first step in preventing heart and kidney diseases in the future.

Patient Engagement:
A patient partner, a mother of a child with high blood pressure, is involved in the project and provides valuable feedback.

Relevance to Patients/Community:
High blood pressure in children is now recognized as a potential risk for future heart and kidney issues. The study aims to create awareness about this tool and educate families about their child's risk for high blood pressure. Early intervention can make a significant difference in preventing abnormal blood pressure in children.

Conclusion:
The tool will help identify the risk of high blood pressure in early childhood, allowing for early referrals and potential prevention or treatment of kidney and heart complications.

Impact of research: 
Timely detection and treatment of high BP among children is imperative for future prevention of CVD. This project addresses a major knowledge and health care gap and offers a unique opportunity to examine early life determinants of BP in a large cohort of children enrolled in 4 well-defined, diverse longitudinal studies. In addition, this model will be developed using information that is usually recorded or is easy to obtain in communitybased child healthcare practice. Incorporating a prediction model into clinical practice may support decision making regarding testing and referral and help guide community-based healthcare professionals in better distributing their time and efforts, by identifying children that need screening and monitoring of BP and allowing them to pay more attention toward at-risk children in the form of tailored lifestyle and nutritional advice. This can be seen as a first step towards targeted primordial prevention of CVD.
Date proposal received: 
Tuesday, 7 November, 2023
Date proposal approved: 
Wednesday, 8 November, 2023
Keywords: 
Health Services Research/Health Systems Research, Hypertension, Computer simulations/modelling/algorithms, Statistical methods, Birth outcomes, Blood pressure, BMI, Cardiovascular, Cohort studies - attrition, bias, participant engagement, ethics