B3164 - Different BMI trajectories to adulthood overweight/obesity and their cardio-metabolic consequences - 23/08/2018

B number: 
B3164
Principal applicant name: 
Will Johnson | Loughborough University (United Kingdom )
Co-applicants: 
Dr Tom Norris, Dr Laura Howe
Title of project: 
Different BMI trajectories to adulthood overweight/obesity and their cardio-metabolic consequences
Proposal summary: 

Obesity is associated with a range of poor health outcomes (e.g., high blood pressure), but not all obese individuals have these outcomes. The relationships of childhood growth and body mass index (BMI is used to define obesity) trajectories, that describe how BMI changes as a person ages, with adulthood obesity have been well-documented. However, few studies have investigated whether there are multiple different patterns of BMI change over age that all lead to adulthood obesity but have different health outcomes. For example, it has been proposed that there are two main BMI patterns that lead to adulthood obesity. The first is characterised by being big at all ages due to a healthy combination of fat and fat-free mass, while the second is characterised by low or normal BMI in infancy and subsequently an unhealthy level of fat accumulation in childhood. It is hypothesised that the first pattern doesn't incur any adverse health consequences, while the second pattern does. This project aims to test this idea that there exist multiple different BMI patterns that lead to adulthood obesity and that they have different consequences for cardio-metabolic health. The same analysis in normal weight adults will help explain the BMI pattern that leads to some normal weight adults having poor health prospects.

Impact of research: 
This will be the first robust study to investigate how different BMI trajectories may explain heterogeneity in cardio-metabolic health prospects among obese adults (and also among normal weight adults). Given the novelty and importance of the research question, advanced and robust analytical plan, and quality of data and size of study, we envisage this work resulting in a single high impact publication (e.g., BMJ, Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology). In particular, we think the work will be highly relevant to clinicians who have to make an assessment of a child’s health prospects based on their BMI measurement or measurements. Results that help explain why some obese people develop a disease while other with the same BMI don't, will also be highly relevant for cardiologists, policy makers, and intervention programmes.
Date proposal received: 
Tuesday, 21 August, 2018
Date proposal approved: 
Thursday, 23 August, 2018
Keywords: 
Epidemiology, Diabetes, Hypertension, Obesity, Statistical methods, Biomarkers - e.g. cotinine, fatty acids, haemoglobin, etc., Blood pressure, BMI, Cardiovascular, Growth, Metabolic - metabolism, Statistical methods