DEVELOPMENT OF CONDUCT PROBLEMS AND VIOLENCE IN ENGLAND AND BRAZIL

This project will compare the development of violent behaviour among adolescents in ALSPAC and in a Brazilian birth cohort also born in 1993. The critical question for investigation is why Brazilian youth develop much higher levels of violent behaviour by late adolescence than English youth, despite quite similar levels of conduct problems in childhood.

BACKGROUND

Out of 83 countries surveyed worldwide, Brazil has the 5th highest rate of youth homicide (51.6 per 100,000) and England and Wales ranks 71st (0.4 per 100,000) [1]. The high rate of homicide in Brazil appears to reflect the tip of a wave of serious and violent crime. Despite the very high rates of these problems in Brazil, there is almost no empirical evidence about their causes.

Conduct problems are disruptive behaviours including physical aggression, lying, stealing, vandalism, and truancy. Studies in Europe, North America and Australasia have shown that conduct problems which start in childhood are particularly predictive of persistent antisocial behaviour, crime and violence. An obvious question is whether a high level of childhood conduct problems lies behind the high level of crime and violence in Brazil. It appears that it does not. One careful investigation of conduct and oppositional defiant disorders among children aged 7-14 years found rates of 7.0% in Brazil and 5.0% in England and Wales [2]. If this finding is replicated, it suggests that the higher rates of crime and violence in Brazil compared with England might be explained by different social processes during adolescence. This is the subject of the proposed study.

The theoretical model that will inform our investigation is Moffitt's influential taxonomy of early onset and adolescent onset antisocial behaviour [3]. Moffitt argues that early onset and persistent antisocial behaviour has its roots in interacting biological and social stresses in early life. By contrast, antisocial behaviour that emerges in the teenage years is driven mainly by the strains of role transitions and delinquent peer influence. Evidence to date suggests that serious violence is primarily committed following early onset and persistent antisocial behaviour. However, recent work shows that another pattern of antisocial behaviour needs to be distinguished. Some children, referred to as a "childhood limited group" show early onset conduct problems but desist from antisocial behaviour during adolescence [4]. Our analyses of ALSPAC data have identified a group of this kind, clearly differentiated from children with persistent early onset conduct problems on a range of early predictors [5].

Working from this model, the higher level of adolescent violence in Brazil than in England might be accounted for in a variety of ways. First, more children with early onset conduct problems might desist in adolescence in England. Second, among early onset and persistent offenders, the frequency of violent acts might be higher among Brazilian adolescents. Third, there might be a higher prevalence of adolescent onset offenders in Brazil. Fourth, adolescent onset offenders in Brazil might commit violent acts more frequently or for longer than their English counterparts. Of course, any combination of these four possibilities might also account for the higher level of adolescent violence in Brazil than in England.

In addition, there are many demographic, social, cultural, and criminal justice system differences between the two countries that might account for different patterns of violent development. Several distinctive demographic, social and cultural characteristics of Brazilian society stand out as potentially important; these include marked income inequality and absolute poverty, educational failure and school drop-out, and the occurrence of subcultures of gangs with high rates of drug use, especially in areas of concentrated poverty [6]. We hypothesise that this social context poses specific risks for the development of violence during adolescence that have not been documented elsewhere. This needs to be tested in high quality, well-matched, cross-national longitudinal studies.

PROPOSED STUDY

We propose to investigate the prevalence, frequency and continuity in conduct problems and violence between the ages of 11 and 17-18 years in ALSPAC and a similar birth cohort (also born in 1993) in Pelotas, southern Brazil, and to investigate possible mechanisms for different rates of these problem behaviours between the two sites. Collaboration has been agreed with the directors of the Pelotas study.

The Pelotas 1993 Cohort Study is a population based birth cohort study [7] of all 5,249 newborns delivered in hospitals in the city of Pelotas in 1993. Nearly all (greater than 99%) of the city's births occur in hospitals. Subsamples were visited at the ages of one, three and six months and one and four years. In 2004-5 it was possible to trace 87.5% of the cohort at ages 10-12 years. The whole cohort was most recently interviewed at age 15 in 2008, and the next wave of interviews will be conducted in 2011, when cohort members are aged 18. Extensive biosocial data have been collected through the course of the study. Many hypothesised predictors of conduct problems and violence have been measured with comparable instruments in Pelotas and ALSPAC.

In both ALSPAC and in the Pelotas study, cohort members' conduct problems were measured at about age 11 using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire and the Development and Well-Being Assessment. At age 17+, a self-report delinquency questionnaire (developed in The Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime) is being administered to ALSPAC participants (personal communication with Matthew Hickman). This questionnaire includes extensive information on involvement in fights, gangs and use of weapons, as well as other forms of delinquency. The same questionnaire will be translated for use in the next wave of interviews with Pelotas study participants at age 18. These measures would provide the key outcome variables for this research, and other data on antisocial behaviours would be used from each study where appropriate.

Analyses would address the following questions. 1) Are early childhood predictors of conduct problems at age 11 similar in Pelotas and ALSPAC? 2) Is there similar continuity from childhood conduct problems to adolescent violence in Pelotas and ALSPAC? 3) Are high rates of violence in Pelotas compared with ALSPAC explained by more youth being involved in violence, or by violent youths committing more violent acts? 4) To what extent is the high rate of adolescent violence in Pelotas compared with ALSPAC explained by differences in rates of: childhood biosocial risks, educational failure, teenage parenthood, stressful life events, drug use, gang involvement, concentrated poverty, and deprived neighbourhood contexts?

REFERENCES

1. Waiselfisz JJ. Mapa da Violencia: Os Jovens da America Latina 2008. Brasilia, DF, Brazil: RITLA, 2008.

2. Fleitlich-Bilyk B, Goodman R. Prevalence of child and adolescent psychiatric disorders in southeast Brazil. Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry 2004;43(6):727-734.

3. Moffitt TE. Life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited antisocial behavior: A 10-year research review and a research agenda. In: Lahey BB, Moffitt TE, Caspi A, editors. Causes of conduct disorder and juvenile delinquency. New York: Guilford, 2003:49-75.

4. Rutter M, Kim-Cohen J, Maughan B. Continuities and discontinuities in psychopathology between childhood and adult life. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry 2006;27(3):4.

5. Barker ED, Maughan B. Differentiating early onset persistent versus childhood limited conduct problem youth. American Journal of Psychiatry submitted.

6. Marsiglia RG, Silveira C, Carneiro Junio N. Brasil: indicadores sociodemograficos e caracteristicas das politicas publicas na decada de 1990. In: Mello MF, Mello AAF, Kohn R, editors. Epidemiologia da saude mental no Brasil. Porto Alegre, Brazil: Artmed, 2007:17-37.

7. Victora CG, Hallal PC, Araujo CLP, Menezes AMB, Wells JCK, Barros FC. Cohort Profile: The 1993 Pelotas (Brazil) Birth Cohort Study. International Journal of Epidemiology 2007; Advanced electronic access: doi:10.1093/ije/dym177.