Project outline: The Economic Determinants and Costs of Delinquent and Disruptive Behavior

Motivation:

Disruptive and delinquent behavior in children and adolescents is a strong predictor of anti-social and

criminal behavior later in adults. (Sentence on Criminality Rates) While there is a large literature on the

development ofthese traits, risk factors for these traits, and evidence of efficacious treatment to prevent

these behaviors, the use of evidence based interventions is very low as practiced in communities within

major countries like the United States and the United Kingdom. There is debate over what role economic

policy might play in addressing this issue.

Research Plan:

Our group, a task force of Harvard's Center for the Developing Child, has been asked to perform analyses

that show how public policy can impact the development of delinquent and disruptive behavior, as well as

the economic costs of these traits to society. We seek to collaborate with (and support) ALSPAC

researchers in a study of the economic antecedents of and costs from disruptive and delinquent behavior.

Utilizing multiple data sources (including the Add Health and NLSY cohort data in our possession) we

seek to look at "natural" economic experiments where exogenous changes in public policy might impact

the development of these traits. We also seek to estimate the life-long costs to society of individuals with

these traits.

Research Aims:

Aim 1:

Determine the role that changes in economic policy might have on the development of disruptive and

delinquent behavior, as defined by standard research practice from survey responses. These policies

include

a. Health insurance coverage for parents and their children

b. Insurance design to improve access to evidence-based treatment for co-occurring

disorders (i.e. ADD, depression)

c. Welfare poliCies

d. School reforms, including special needs education

To control for endogeneity in outcomes, we propose to use two forms of randomization based on the

various strengths of the available datasets. First, we plan to utilize specific genetic variants linked with

these traits, controlling for parental genotype when possible. Second, we will use variation across time

and geographic areas in welfare, health insurance, and related variables that affect prevention of CD/ODD

and the effective treatment of these disorders. Finally, we hope to interact these policy changes with

temperament measures as a way of understanding individual traits.

Aim 2:

Determine the cost of delinquency and disruptive behavior. We seek to estimate the suspected cost to

society of children who meet criteria for oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder, by looking at

predicted future rates of incarceration and health care costs (particularly mental health) thru linking

childhood measures of disruptive and delinquent behavior with future criminal activity and other

economic measures.

Needs from ALSPAC data (primarily to serves as controls for our results):

1) Longitud inal measures of parental inputs (including parenting styles)

2) School -level traits, including data on peer groups

3) Estimates of anti-social behavior in children

5) Targeted SNP-level data for a limited set of markers (MAO-A, primarily)

6) Reported health care utilization and youth services intervention(s) for the sample, including

detailed information on use of behavioral and pharmacological treatments of ODDleD and

related disorders.