Aims:

The study aims to investigate what interventions, services or policies could help prevent primary-school

children with conduct problems, living in high risk families, from developing antisocial and criminal

behaviour as they grow older. The study aims to take a broad view as to what could help and has therefore

been designed in two phases. Phase One is a qualitative longitudinal interview study with ten families to

build hypotheses about what might help. I would like to use ALSPAC data in Phase Two of the study. In

Phase Two the aim is to access longitudinal data on larger samples of similarly high need families that

include a child with behaviour problems to explore issues arising from the qualitative interviews. I aim to

explore possible modifiers (referred to as 'modifying factors') of the association between risk factors and

outcomes (antisocial and criminal behaviour in later adolescence). The aim is not to identify pre-existing

protective factors but to look at changes occurring between beginning primary school and adolescence

which appear to indicate a move onto a more positive trajectory. Outcomes will be compared for matched

groups of children who have or have not experienced the modifying factor/exposure. The matching will

be based on risk factors for the ultimate outcomes of interest, i.e.antisocial and criminal behaviour at ages

16+, and it is proposed that propensity score matching be used. This matching will make use of existing

knowledge about factors associated with resilience in an effort to control for these and isolate the impact

of later occurrences (e.g. Bowen, Heron, Steer, & El Comy, 2008). The method is imperfect for looking

at effectiveness of intervention but provides one route to addressing the possibly serious consequences of

prioritising easy-to-research interventions.